I know I've talked a lot about California partitions before on this blog but how could California possibly be partitioned? Issues include water rights, university/college systems, prisons, pensions, entitlements, etc. as reasons for opposing partition. I've heard about Tim Draper's proposal to split California in 3 but his proposal is deeply flawed & stupid.
Although the counties of San Diego, Orange, Imperial, Riverside, San Bernardino, Kern, Inyo, Mono, Kings, Tulare, Fresno, & Madera should certainly either form their own state or be transferred to neighboring state like Nevada & Arizona, the remaining two are deeply flawed as Upstate California would be forced under Bay Area rule. Plus, the above proposal would be overwhelmingly shot down as Conservatives fear creating two more Democrat states.
Tim Draper's proposed "South California" is almost identical to the 2011 proposal Jeff Stone made with the difference being Mariposa(not included in Draper's Proposal)(pictured left). Also, Draper's proposal neglects "State of Jefferson" as they would still be forced under Democrat rule. Most proposals for State of Jefferson have included some counties from Oregon(pictured right). I would name "South California" Mojave for better naming though.
Another option could include having counties of "South California" & "Jefferson" be transferred to neighboring states such as Arizona, Nevada, & Oregon. Arizona would receive following counties of San Diego, Imperial, Orange, Riverside, & San Bernardino south of the 35th parallel. Nevada would receive counties such as San Bernardino north of the 35th parallel, Kern, Mono, Inyo, Tulare, Kings, Fresno, Madera, Plumas*, Lassen*, Modoc*, Shasta*, Tehama*, Butte*, & Glenn*. Oregon would receive counties such as Del Norte, Siskiyou, Trinity, Humboldt, Mendocino, Plumas*, Lassen*, Modoc*, Shasta*, Tehama*, Butte*, & Glenn*. *=Counties that could be transferred to Oregon or Nevada depending upon negotiations.
These two proposals depend on how negotiations go. It's likely next year that Democrats in California will not have a 2/3rds majority necessary to raise taxes for Gavin Newsom's "Single-Payer" healthcare proposal. It's no secret California's been horribly mismanaged & unions have influenced it's state politics! How could the Democrat dominated legislature possibly consent to allowing "South California" & Jefferson to split away from California?
This has made me think about Donald Trump's recent meeting with Kim Jong Un of North Korea in convincing the latter to de-nuclearize & improve conditions for his people. Kim Jong Un want's to be accepted by the World & have a seat at the "Big Guys" table. The Korea Summit Trump made it in Kim Jong Un's best interest to accept Trump's deal.
I've been thinking, in the likely even of a Gavin Newsom Gubernatorial victory in California, Trump could make a deal & give many things Gavin Newsom wants. Newsom has shown himself to be narcissistic just like Kim Jong Un. Newsom also want to implement something called "Single-Payer" healthcare which would cost $400 billion. Plus, there are over $200 billion in unfunded liabilities(forget the budget surplus) & massive debt California has.
Gavin Newsom likes to be the most popular guy in town. He is also a big party boy as well. Given how power mad California's One-Party political establishment is, it will be a challenge for Donald Trump to convince them to surrender certain counties either to form two new states or join neighboring states. Here are some points of negotiation & leverage Donald Trump's administration can use to convince California Democrats to play ball.
Democrats would have a safe 2/3rds supermajority to raise taxes(to pay for Single-Payer)
Single-Payer healthcare is one of Gavin Newsom's promises made to Progressive voters. Though the 2018 elections will likely result in Gavin Newsom becoming Governor, California's state legislature will likely not have democrats having more than 2/3rds for both chambers necessary to raise taxes. A handful of State Assembly seats held by Democrats are likely to be flipped by GOP challengers, eliminating Democrat's 2/3rds supermajority. Plus, even some Democrats in the State Assembly have rejected Single-Payer due to it's $400 billion price tag. Should South California & Jefferson be formed or counties from those proposed states get transferred to other neighboring states, Democrats in both chambers would have larger majorities in their state legislature. Also, given that most California voters oppose the Gas Tax hike that Gavin Newsom supports, Newsom could even consider allowing certain GOP-leaning counties to leave with certain conditions. Even if California doesn't partition, a deal could be reached with State Assembly Republicans to improve conditions for certain regions to California & make it more affordable.
Gavin Newsom has a massive ego & is very narcissistic, having the desire to be popular
Gavin Newsom seems to be making the 2018 Gubernatorial race about himself & about his opposition to Donald Trump. Should the 2018 midterms become a disaster for Democrats, Gavin Newsom may feel like it's in his own best interest to allow South California & Jefferson to secede from California & form their own states if trump offers Newsom a great deal such as Health & Human Services agreeing to fund part of Newsom's universal Health Care proposal as well as pay off some of California's pension liabilities while handing over some of the debt to Jefferson & South California. Gavin Newsom just like Kim Jong Un wants to be universally liked & given how the Korea summit went, Gavin Newsom will likely have to negotiate with Trump & with some Assembly & Senate GOP members to accomplish some goals.
Trump & Congress could agree to pay off much of the unfunded liabilities & pay off some of California's state debt as well as assign portions of that debt to the newly created states based upon respective GDPs
California has an embarrassing unfunded liabilities problem as well as massive debt. California also has untapped natural resources restricted because of crazy environmentalist interest groups. The federal government could take control of the natural resources of California to pay off unfunded liabilities & debts as well as agree to fund some of the water storage programs & desalination. California also has the highest gas prices not just because of Gas Tax but because of Cap n Trade regulations. If Trump can convince Gavin Newsom & the Democrats of an alternative that does not not place burden on cost of living & business, then a deal can be made to replace cap n trade with a revenue neutral Carbon Tax that does not place undue burden on economy.
Interstate Compacts can be made to solve issues such as water rights, education, prisons, entitlements, etc.
California's state legislature could voice their concerns associated with partition with the federal government establishing interstate compacts such as giving California some of Jefferson's water rights & building more water storage, colleges giving in-state tuition to those from the partitioned states(California, South California, Jefferson) & treating them as one university system for a certain amount of time. The federal government can partially manage some of the entitlements for California's state government so people as a result of partition don't have to worry about losing them. In some cases, prisoners can be transferred to federal prisons if they cannot be transferred to a suitable prison of their residence.
California as part of the deal could act like 3 separate states but be one state for Federal purposes
Instead of having 3 states outright, California could instead have three different state legislatures & three different executives as another option with each making their own laws & regulations. Another option would be to give autonomy to South California & Jefferson, exempting them from some of California's laws & regulations. Of course, County & Local governments should be given greater autonomy & sway: http://roditisforcontroller.com/trickle-up-taxation/
California could model itself after Switzerland where instead of having one chief executive, there could be 5 with 3 of them being election by region & top two vote getters being voted at large. Plus, the functions of the state legislature would be restricted with county & local governments establishing tax policy & the state government collecting 30% of tax revenues. While the state legislature would make laws, the county & local governments would mostly implement them.
If you'd like to know if there is a plan for partition according to the way being done via Article 4, Section 3?:
Above are links for two movements to breakaway from the Los Angeles-San Francisco Axis of Power. Unlike Tim Draper's proposals to partition California via ballot initiative without any plan of governance, New California & Jefferson will do it based on Constitutional means. New California already is in the process of establishing it's state government. What's needed is for California's state legislature to be given an incentive, a deal to allow partition. Trump is a master negotiator & I'm certain with him negotiating a great deal & with a stronger GOP majority in the U.S. Senate next year, this will be possible.
Another alternative could be Congress invoking Article 4, Section 4 Guarantee Clause by forcing states to give greater autonomy to local & county governments & scale back burdensome regulations causing people to flee to other states. This would apply to other Solid Democrat states as well.
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